There is a raft of tools and techniques available to help us think about the future. None can accurately predict what will unfold but many can help us analyse more systematically what might occur and how best we could prepare ourselves for future success in a fast changing world.
The following is a list of forty-seven tools and techniques used by futurists. Each has strengths and limitations and is typically used in conjunction with a range of other tools in order to create outputs of value to our client's objectives.
Actor/principal player analysis | Analysis of the way key participants might act or make decisions in hypothetical future situations |
| Backcasting | Working backwards from a specic future date towards the present time to identify the actions and timescales needed to achieve a specific, desirable endpoint (or vision), or to assess whether its achievement is viable by that date |
| Brainstorming | A creativity technique for eliciting a wealth of fresh thinking about the impact of potential future developments |
| Counter evidence identification | Systematic identification of counter evidence to a forecast |
| Cost benefit analysis | Determination of the ratio of benefits to costs in potential alternative future circumstances |
| Cross impact analysis | Exploration of the interaction of a group of trends, events and issues to assess what their combined impact might be |
| Cyclical pattern analysis | Analysis of cyclical or recurring patterns as an aid to anticipating change |
| Decision analysis | Consideration of the longer term consequences of different decisions being taken |
Decision modelling
| Anticipating the future nature of decision making by allocating weightings to anticipated future key costs and benefits |
| Delphi | Systematically collecting and pooling the views of appropriate experts about future developments through a confidential, structured series of interactions |
| Dialectic approach | Development of a prediction together with a counter prediction. Analysis and critique of both perspectives |
| Divergence mapping | Identification of divergent lines of development from a common starting point today and analysis of the potential impact of each line of development |
| Econometric modelling | Mathematical models assessing the implications of different operations of an economy |
| Emerging issues analysis | Systematic analysis of emerging issues of potential relevance to specified areas of interest |
| Environmental scanning | Observation of the world to identify indicators of future change |
| Expert interviews | Interviews, with varying degrees of structure, with a cross section of expert |
| Feelism | Analysis of people's feelings about aspects of the future to identify the underlying assumptions, values, etc. that may influence their responses to change |
Focus groups
| Guided conversations with small, carefully selected groups of respondents to explore attitudes and to register preferences and priorities for future related choices |
| Forecasting | Estimating how something will develop, sometimes with estimates of the probability of its occurrence |
| Future search conference | A structured participative technique for involving a substantial number of experts or lay people in analysis of trends and then debate about preferred futures and routes to achieving desired outcomes |
| Futures stories | Creation of stories about how the future might, or should, develop |
| Futures wheel | Creation of a concentrically ringed diagram that illustrates a range of possible consequences that could flow from an aspect of change |
| Gaming | Activity where people simulate potential future situations in a competitive environment |
| Modelling | Exploration of real-world relationships through development of internally self-consistent computer models that are then subjected to various forms of manipulation |
Normative forecasting
| Identification of a desired objectives together with analysis of the steps needed to achieve them |
| Gap analysis | Exploration of the essential components of a potential development to see if any are unlikely to be available at a target date. Identification of areas where further understanding is required |
| Horizon scanning | A form of environmental scanning to see what is already 'on the horizon' and could well occur relatively soon |
| Impact analysis | Assessment of the potential impact of trends and new developments |
| Inhibitors of change identification | Search for factors that might counteract or slow the pace of change Issues analysis Identification of issues that may emerge, or be particularly dominant, as a result of potential change |
| Mission flow diagrams | Analysis of the consequences of actions required to achieve a specific objective. Systematic assessment of the alternative routes by which something might be achieved |
| Morphological box | A matrix containing a list of key questions and all the possible answers to them. Answers are scored to assess which are worthy of further analysis |
Normative forecasting
| Identification of desired future objectives together with analysis of the steps that may be needed to achieve them |
| Participative techniques | Techniques involving a wide range of people, often customers, clients or members of the public. Include focus groups, opinion polling, syncon, public Delphi, community visioning, future search conferences and groupware |
| Precursor analysis | Analysis of trends and new developments to see if they are early indicators of a substantial change or paradigm shift |
| Relevance tree | Creation of a tree-like diagram where branches illustrate the potential choices, options and developments that extend from a single central point |
| Road maps | Systematic approach to identifying the actions and timetables required to reach a desired future outcome (or vision) |
Scenarios
| A set of internally consistent, alternative visions of the future. A set of snapshots of a particular point in the future |
| S curve analysis | Analysis based on the assumption that a particular change will have a typical growth curve |
| Simulations | Creation of a representation of a real event through role-play, games, mathematical and 3D models, etc. to aid understanding of what the future might be like and to explore alternative options for dealing with what may occur |
| Social forecasting | Forecasting of social behaviour, values, beliefs, etc. (cf technological or economic forecasting) |
| Systems perspective/dynamics | Focus on the big picture and the function of the system's parts based on their relationship with one another and within the system's larger context |
| Technology tracking and assessment | Monitoring of new technologies and analysis of their potential development and impact |
| Trend analysis and extrapolation | Analysis and then extension of past trends into the future (usually with modification for anticipated future events) |
| Unintended consequences analysis | Exploration of the potential unplanned, undesirable consequences of a change or proposed course of action. Identification of new problems that might arise |
| Visioning | Techniques to develop a robust, vivid, descriptive vision of a desired or preferable future that aims to rouse people to action. A vision, as a 'preferred future' may be compared with 'probable' or 'possible' futures in order to identify the actions needed to achieve it. |
| What if? | Creative thinking technique focussed on the potential implications of a specific trend, development or event occurring |
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Caveat. It is difficult to summarise complex techniques in a few words and inevitably people use the same terms to mean different activities. Suggestions of additional methods to include, or better descriptions of techniques, would be greatly appreciated. © Future Creation Ltd 2008 |
To discuss the support Future Creation Ltd can offer you organisation view the Research page, telephone 0207 433 3771 or email Info@FutureCreation.co.uk.