Strategic futures is the study of potential major future change. It is important as insights into what the future might hold can bring huge benefit to those who successfully use the insights offered. It is often at the heart of competitive advantage in business and a key feature of successful career development.
Future Creation focuses on strategic futures, combining the benefits of futures studies with creative thinking, scenario building and strategic planning.
Quality futures analysis tends to come from universities, government research and specialist futures organisations. Close attention is paid to changing patterns of behaviour and the emerging 'disruptive' technologies that offer major new business or community opportunities. Demographic, political, social, technological, economic and environmental change is studied, together with changing attitudes and values. Major attempts are made to identify paradigm shifts, the key drivers of change and the main areas of uncertainty about the future.
Futurists focus on different future periods but five to twenty years forward
is fairly common. We tend not to study single aspects of change in isolation
as often it is the interaction of one developments with another that is crucial
to change. For example, the way the anticipated 'always on',' tetherless', cheap
electronic communication technologies are eventually used is likely to be influenced
by the needs of a 'knowledge society', globalisation, the availability of skilled
labour, household composition, environmental concerns and the nature of democracy.
In some cases future indicators tend to point in a single direction, for example
towards ageing population in developed nations, increasing complexity, an accelerating
pace of change and global interdependence. Other analysis shows contradictory
trends: there might be increased pressure on employees to work long hours or
a balanced work-life culture could develop. Futurists also consider 'wildcards',
events that have a relatively low chance of occurring in the future but would
have major impact if they did. The September 11th terrorist attack on the World
Trade Centre and arrival of the internet are past examples: future wildcards
might be the rapid decline of America, extensive male infertility or Bin Laden's
daughter falling in love with Barrack Obama's daughter.
After strategic futurists have analysed potential long-term future change they explore the key opportunities and challenges these could present. They help people benefit from early awareness of potential change and gain understanding of the key areas of future uncertainty. This knowledge can be used to develop robust strategic plans, inform investment decisions, build worthwhile careers and generally gain a better chance of creating the type of future we want to see.
To aid thinking about the future a wide range of techniques has been developed. They include environmental scanning, forecasting, scenarios, Delphi, cross impact analysis, extrapolation and visioning. While none can guarantee to predict the future, experience shows that organisations that seriously plan their long-term future are better placed to gain competitive advantage through early market entry and sensitive adaptation to changing environments. Similarly people who understand emerging change tend to provide more effective leadership, build a positive reputation and operate in areas with expanding career opportunities.
Future Creation can develop your understanding and use of futures thinking through consultancy, research, training, executive coaching and speaking engagements. To contact us telephone 0207 433 3771 or Email Info@FutureCreation.co.uk.